Silver Trust (SLV) could have formed a genuine bottom after a 4 years bear market, Peter Brandt shares. And when he talks, we pay attention. If you have seen Peter Brandt’s tradng performance, you would have known that he is a legendary market master. His track record could only be compared to the best, such as Stanley Druckenmiller, George Soros and all who achieved more than 30% annualized returns since forever. Peter’s track record is such:
Average annual compounded rate of return (based on IRS tax reporting) = 41.56%
Average annual compounded rate of return (based on VAMI calculations) = 77.8%
Growth of initial investment of each $1,000 (through 2009) = $334,817
Profitable years = 14 & Unprofitable years = 4
Best year = +604.7% & Worst year = (8.4%)
Ratio – size of average profit in profitable years divided by size of average loss in unprofitable years = 7.6 to 1
Ratio – Total gains in profitable years divided by total losses in unprofitable years = 26.8 to 1
The following was sent to members of Peter Brandt’s Factor Service
It was a four years ago last month I became convinced Silver was topping and would enter a prolonged bear market. On Apr 24, 2011, I posted a piece titled, “How do you spell bubble … Silver.” You can read the post here. http://peterlbrandt.com/
?p=388. On May 1, 2011, I posted a piece titled, “Eight years of global Silver supply changed hands last week,” You can read the post here. http://peterlbrandt.com/ ?p=453. With one fake-out along the way I remained a steadfast Silver bear through Nov 2014, when I sent the following Tweet:
Peter shares that the close we should still be careful about silver because the November 2014 close is still not penetrated. Only then we can be sure that the bear market has ended. He thinks that the December, 2014 crash had all the earmarks of a wash-out bottom. Since then the silver market has formed a very exomplex Head & Shoulders formation and even though we can’t ignore the idea that it will lead to $12 per ounce target, its as likely that silver finished a bottom as a rare compound fulcrum formation.
The compound fulcrum formation is almost perfect in form and symmetry. Peter shares:
As such, it would not be unexpected for Silver to either tank or explode in price within the next two to four weeks.The compound fulcrum (if that is what it becomes) lasted 19 weeks from its start to the mid-point high in Jan 2015. It has now been 17 weeks since the mid-point high — thus, we are presently in near perfect symmetry from a time standpoint.
Another good thing in the setup is that the shoulders are in sync and are identical which makes it easy to trade and probably makes the formation more valid.
Pete is no in a state of trading alert and is ready to trade Silver in any direction even though he prefers the buy side now. Silver (SLV) could enter the headlines worldwide in the next several weeks.
Of course, before you decide whether to trade the Silver Trust (SLV) breakout from failed H&S or any other formation, remember that Peter Brandt said:
“Markets are about possibilities, not probabilities and not certainties. If you want probabilities, find a different blogger.”
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